Israel: A divided house

Our coverage of the Israeli elections this year has been relatively mute. With the war with Hamas and its fall out for Jews worldwide, we have had plenty other stuff to write about. Even so the race has been anything but inspiring. We have in previous years come out strongly in support of Kadima. Their political platform is still probably closest to our position but their performance under Prime Minister Olmert has been dismal. Thus it was hard to get excited about them continuing to run the country. My only real preference was for a strong national unity government that could make the difficult but necessary decision to address the many challenges facing the Jewish state from a nuclear Iran, to peace with the Palestinians to the financial crisis.

If I had been forced to bet, like most, I guess I would have put my money on Netanyahu to be Prime Minister. For months he has been the clear favorite in the polls. I do confess that I did check out the odds on the political gambling site www.intrade.com but after being badly burned on North Carolina in the American election last year decided to hold onto my money. I good decision I guess seeing that the exit polls and with most of the vote count in Kadima is surprisingly leading Likud by 1 seat. Tzipi Livni’s odds to be the next prime minister have sky rocketed (they were at 15% on Monday; they are now at 45%). Anything is possible in Israeli politics but if you look closely at the numbers it’s hard to see how she can put together a stable government.

Netanyahu is no fool. He knows that if she fails (which is likely) he will be Prime Minister and thus will not join as a junior partner. That leaves Labour and Lieberman. But their combined total with Kadima would come to only 56 seats. Livni and Shas have made it clear that neither would want to work together. Shas would also have a hard time sitting in a government with Yisrael Beiteinu. Meretz has also ruled out sharing power with them. So that leaves the non-Zionist religious party United Torah Judaism (UTJ) or the Arab/non-Zionist parties. In the current political climate the latter are a non starter. So the only real chance Livni has is the 5 mandates of UTJ which would bring her total to a flimsy 61. Perhaps with enough money for their yeshiva programs and with promises of increasing the child support grant, she may be able to buy them off. But could Lieberman, a champion of the anti-religious, accept such a thing? I doubt it. This outcome, if even feasible, would produce a very unstable equilibrium in Israeli politics.

Of course the other alternative is that Netanyahu is tasked with forming the new government. Kadima, realising that their hopes rest on his failure, would be crazy to join. Without Kadima, he does have a right wing/religious coalition of 65 mandates. But once again the ability of Yisrael Beiteinu to sit in a government with Shas and UTJ is questionable. Labour, instead of Yisrael Beiteinu is then his only alternative. Only if Barak is seen to be keeping Lieberman out could he possibly prop up such a right wing religious government. Even then with only 63 odd mandates, this government would be a prisoner of instability and inaction.

Israel is a house divided and it’s a political disaster for the country. We have achieved the worst possible result. The only way out is what for the 2 major political parties (Likud and Kadima) to put their personal interests aside and work for the good of the country. This will require a national unity government with the sharing of power. A rotating Prime Ministership, as was the case in the 1980s with Peres and Shamir, is the only option. It will take real leadership on the part of both Livni and Netanyahu. I hope that they have it. We are going to need both of them if Israel is to become whole again and function.

Here’s an interesting table showing the difference in mandates between 2006 and 2009. Interestingly, the left and center combined have lost a total of 16 seats and the right, led by resurgence in the Likud, have gained 15. Arab parties gained one.

Comments

[Shaun]

Hi Steve,

I think that your comment was a bit of a wish list.

According to the election law in Israel the Israeli President must call on a party leader (Not necessarily the leader of the largest party) to form a government.
Netanyahu clearly has a larger block of support with which he will create a coalition government. Netanyahu has no reason to agree to a power sharing deal with Livni.
Being the politician he is, he will take all the power he can get.
Ps. He’s no of less a crazy megalomaniac than Barak or Livni.

[Mike]

Shaun,

Who will be in the Netanyahu coalition? Its rests on Shas and UTJ sitting with Lieberman. Is that likely?

[Shaun]

They will all sit together.

Lieberman ran his campaign as a strong right winger. He only played the civil marriage card late in his campaign in order to solidify his secular vote. While he might make a bit of noise about the religious/secular issue he’ll let it go in favor of a few well placed cabinet post.
Shas has steadily lost support over the past few years so they cannot afford to skip out on a government that could prop up their welfare funding. Even if they don’t get child subsidies reinstated, Shas will join Netanyahu and Liberman, especially if they get the housing ministry
Remember that Shas and Liberman spent a significant amount of time together in Olmert government.
UTJ might be a wildcard. They usually follow a similar pattern to Shas although they won’t demand any major ministries, but smaller concessions.
The UTJ rabbis will sit with Liberman just like they joined the Labor government in the 90’s… and that government included Meretz.

Despite what the pundits claim about the Israeli population preferring Livni over Netanyahu. This is incorrect.
The Majority of Israelis voted for the right wing block with the intension that these parties would join a Likud lead government.
It is time for the Israeli left to sit in opposition.