Qadhafi: From Mad Dog to Western Poodle

Many of us self-confessed neo-cons had hoped that the Iraq war would be the catalyst for a democratic revolution in the Middle East. A free and prosperous Iraq, so we thought, would provide the downtrodden masses of the Arab world with an example of a viable alternative to despotic nationalist dictatorships and Islamic fundamentalism. However, as many of our critics love to remind us, a free and prosperous Iraq seems ever more unlikely with civil violence exploding daily.

Despite the criticism, the war has brought about democratic progress in the Middle East. There was the cedar revolution in Lebanon, minor election reform in Egypt and perhaps the most surprising consequence - Libya’s remarkable transformation. Good old fashioned gunboat diplomacy still has its merits.

America was able to showcase one of these indirect successes this week with the restoration of full diplomatic ties with Qadhafi’s Libya. While Qadhafi is still on my top 10 list of most vile tin pot dictators, I do believe that if managed correctly Libya could become our new Arab poster state for freedom. Libya has over the last few years taken significant positive steps. They have denounced terrorism; paid reparation for the human suffering their support or violence has caused and voluntarily dismantled their nuclear weapons program. This certainly did warrant the lifting of sanctions and the normalisation of relations with the West.

Libya today is in a horrible financial state. Its economy is plagued by inefficient state controls and corruption. Libya's rapid population growth has also led to rising unemployment, currently estimated at 30 percent. In addition, years of sanctions have taken a toll on the lucrative oil sector, with production down to 1.3 million barrels per day from 3.7 million barrels per day in the 1970s.

Qadhafi realises that Western Foreign Direct Investment and trade are the key to avoiding financial meltdown. Libya has one of the largest oil reserves in the world. So it is in Western interests to develop a friendly relationship. But investment and trade must be made conditional on political reform. Libya is still ranked by Freedom House as one of the most unfree countries in the world. According to their 2005 Freedom survey

Libyans cannot change their government democratically. Colonel Muammar al-Qadhafi rules by decree with little accountability or transparency. Free media do not exist in Libya. The government severely limits freedom of speech and of the press, particularly any criticism of Qadhafi. The state owns and controls all print and broadcast media outlets and thereby maintains a monopoly on the flow of information. The judiciary is not independent. Security forces have the power to pass sentences without a trial, and the government has used summary judicial proceedings to suppress domestic dissent. And the largely Berber and Tuareg minorities face discrimination.

September 11 demonstrated with catastrophic effect that the old foreign principle of “he may be a son of a bitch but he is our son of bitch” does not work. America and the West should not make that same mistake now with Libya. We desperately need an Arab democrat but unless Qadhafi institutes many more significant reforms he is not our man no matter how bad the situation gets in Iraq.

Comments

[Anon]

> "Libya could become our new Arab poster state for freedom."

I involuntarily snorted out loud reading that. If you can believe _that_ - and, for that matter, if you believe that the Brotherly Leader's denouncing terrorism or dismantling a nuclear program has even the smallest connection with freedom for the people he governs - then swallowing the "free and prosperous Iraq" story must have been a piece of cake,

[will not be neo-coned again]

here is a better anylsis from a Libyan American blogger

http://hafeds2cents.blogspot.com/2006/05/good-bad-and-ugly.html

this guy is right on th emark

[Steve]

Anon, did you read till the end?

[Mike]

Anon, as I mentioned I am no Qadhafi fan. I also make no bones about the lack of human rights in Libya.

Nevertheless I believe Libya may present the West was an opportunity. The forceful imposition of democracy as took place in Iraq has proved to be much less successful than we had hoped. The lack of stability is our greatest obstacle. Libya in contrast is extremely stable.

Qadhafi is very weak after years of sanctions. So the West could use its economic clout to push for political reform. It’s going to be a long and slow process but will not have the human or financial costs of the Iraq war. What can use oppose about that?

[soccerdad]

Good old fashioned gunboat diplomacy still has its merits.

Not just old fashioned, but in the future too:
Scotty: The best diplomat that I know is a fully-loaded phaser bank.

:-)