There has been a lot of speculation recently about Ariel Sharon leaving the Likud and forming a Mapai type centrist party. With elections likely to be held in February next year I wonder if it may be time for Sharon to reignite something he started along time ago…ShlomZion.
In 1977 Ariel Sharon concluded that many changes were coming Israel’s way and he decided that he wanted to be involved in making those changes. A few years earlier he started the Likud or “coalition” which entailed grouping many strong but small parties together in order to pose an effective challenge to Labour. This gave rise to today’s Likud party.
But in 1977 Sharon decided to run independent of the Likud with his own new party called ShlomZion – “Peace for Zion.”
Despite a promising start where polls predicted he would win 18 seats, Shlomzion performed poorly and won only 2 seats. The Likud won the election ending 29 years of effective Labour rule. Menachem Begin leading his Herut party became Prime Minister and immediately asked Sharon to rejoin the Likud. Sharon acquiesced and was appointed Minister of Agriculture.
This is interesting for a number of reasons. It shows that Sharon has left the Likud and started a new centrist party before. Granted, in those days the Likud was really a collection of smaller independent parties rather than the organised and unified power it was later to become, but it does suggest that there would be a certain (okay very small) degree of familiarity were Sharon to make the move.
Shlomzion failed for a number of reasons, but the primary reason cited by Sharon in his book “Warrior” is that the media forgot that he existed and paid scant attention to him. Clearly Sharon would not face similar problems today.
The media has always portrayed Sharon as a hawkish stumbling block to peace. And they have always been wrong. Sharon traditionally focuses first and foremost on security – but it is that very security that can bring peace to both Israel and Palestine.
In 1976 when Rabin was Prime Minister of Israel he appointed Sharon as his special advisor. Rabin knew that Sharon was a threat to Labour. He knew about Sharon’s close ties to Herut leader Menachem Begin. He knew that he would be under pressure to appoint a Labour ideologue to that prestigious position. Neverthless Yitzhak Rabin – “Man of Peace” - selected Ariel Sharon. That says a lot about Sharon.
In his autobiography which was written before Rabin’s assassination Sharon writes that there was a lot of overlap between his and Rabin’s ideas for Israel. Their partnership was a positive one. Does this perhaps give any insight into what type of party Shlomzion would have been?
And now, today, as both internal and external chaos threatens to reign in Israel, Sharon may be thinking about what could have been with Shlomzion and if perhaps it is time to try again. The risks would be great. But brave risk taking is nothing new to Sharon.
His advisors are certainly thinking along these lines: PM’s advisors tell him to leave Likud.
| A majority of Prime Minister Ariel Sharon's advisers recommended on Thursday that he leave the Likud and start a new party, but he has not yet decided his political future, sources close to Sharon said on Thursday. Sharon convened his "ranch forum" of advisers for a meeting that lasted more than two hours at the Prime Minister's Office in Tel Aviv. Sharon said at the conclusion of the meeting that he would not announce his decision until the middle of next week. Sharon is still awaiting the results of in-depth polls and focus groups before deciding. His main reason for leaving the Likud would be that he intends to take significant diplomatic steps in his next term and would not want to be limited by the hawks in the Likud faction. |
(Sidenote: Unlike those advocating the Mapai style party, I do not think it would be necessary for Sharon to take Shimon Peres with him. His allies from the Likud, along with some dealmaking with certain smaller religious parties could be all he needs.)
Unless I'm very wrong, Shlomzion was Sharon's daughter's name.
I don't believe that a "3rd party" bid by Sharon will be successful. In the past decade there've been two such breakaways and neither performed as well as initially predicted.
Avigdor Kahalani broke from Labor to become the Third Way and foundered. Then in 1999 there was Mordechai, Lipkin-Shahak, Merridor etc. who started their party to great media hoopla. They crashed and burned.
In the end the media is important. But what's more important are the people in the trenches. If Sharon leaves Likud he loses them.
Posted by: soccerdad | November 20, 2005 at 23:10