Sharon Leaving Likud

Looks like the ShlomZion post was right on cue: Sharon leaving Likud to form centrist party

Both Foreign Minister Silvan Shalom and Defence Minister Shaul Mofaz (who supported disengagement) are set to stay in the Likud and will take part in the leadership race. This could be seen as an early blow for Sharon who would have liked these two moderates to follow him. If Mofaz fares badly in the Likud elections then there still may be an opening for him to join Sharon.

14 Likud MK's including Vice Prime Minister Ehud Olmert (who visited SA last year) are expected to join Sharon in the new party.

If anything, this does give voters a clearer choice of what they are voting for. The lines between the various parties will be clearer than they have been for some time. Voters will be able to describe the leading party platforms in 3-4 simple and concise sentences, allowing the people to truly describe what they want.

Break-away parties led by Israeli heroes have historically performed badly. Ben-Gurion and Moshe Dayan both slipped off the scene after going it alone. But as the Head Heeb points out, things are different for Sharon.

For one thing, Sharon will be leading it from the prime minister's chair rather than as a leader cast out by his own party. Even more to the point, it will occupy a critical vacancy in Israeli political space. Rafi (Ben Gurion's party) was formed primarily for personal rather than ideological reasons, and didn't have any policies or programs that couldn't be co-opted by some other party. To be sure, personal disputes played a part in the Likud rebellion and Sharon's decision to quit, but his list is also ideologically distinct, and will fill the need for a party occupying the center. It may not win the 32 seats that a recent poll predicted, but it won't fade as fast or as far as Rafi did.

Comments

[mike]

Looks like you were right on the money Steve about Sharon bolting the Likud to form a new centrist political party. Now, only time will tell whether he has made an inspired political calculation or a foolish gamble.

[Steve]

It would be foolish to make any predictions at this stage, and early opinion polls are pointless at this stage. But still...take a look at these early polls conducted by Haaretz. They show Sharon's party getting 30 seats, Labour 26 and Likud gets les than 20.