Can We Denuke Iran?

During Sunday lunch, one of my more hawkish friends was getting rather worked up about the Iranian president’s call to wipe Israel of the map. ‘How can we allow that evil regime to obtain nuclear weapons’, he protested. Then banging on the table, he shouted, ‘we must denuke the bastards’.

Rather ashamed by the public scene he was making in the restaurant, I decided to change the conversation to something a little more calming. I have however been mulling over the point he was making and felt it deserved a post.

Although a little extreme in his delivery, I believe many supporters of Israel share his sentiments that the IDF must launch a pre-emptive strike against Iran’s nuclear facilities before they are able to produce an atomic bomb - just as they did in 1981 to Osirak, when Israel destroyed Iraq’s nuclear reactor.

Such action would certainly be morally justifiable. The Iranian president has publicly stated his intention to destroy Israel, any action to prevent Iran attaining the means to put into practice this diabolical plan would certainly constitute self-defence. But practically is it possible for Israel to denuke the bastards?

Unlike in the Iraqi case, Iran’s nuclear facilities are not in a single location. Its 3 known nuclear sites- Bushehr, Natanz and Arak are located hundreds of miles from each other, making a simultaneous attack extremely difficult. Much of these sites are in deep underground installations and they are believed to be protected from an air strike by missiles. In addition Iran is much further from Israel than Iraq making the risk of early detection much greater. For these reasons, Yiftah Shapiro an annalist at the Jaffe Centre for Strategic Studies concludes in a article called “Iranian Missiles: The nature of the Threat” that Israel’s options to counter the threat are limited because a pre-emptive strike against Iran’s nuclear assets is problematic.

Furthermore the question of retaliatory action needs to be considered. Unlike Iraq, Iran does have the military means to retaliate for any pre-emptive strike on its nuclear facilities. Open source information suggests Iran currently possesses more than 500 Shihab ballistic missiles. Most of these missiles are Shihab 1 and 2, with 300 to 500 kilometre rangers and a 700- 985 kilogram payload. These missles are capable of hitting U.S. bases in Oman, Qatar Kuwait and Iraq. Iran is also believed to possess 25 to 100 Shihab 3 ballistic missiles. Shihab 3 missiles have a 1300 km range and a 700 kg payload. This makes them capable of destroying numerous Israeli cities such as Tel-Aviv, Jerusalem, Haifa and Dimona.

Perhaps a similarly bleak assessment of the military option is the reason the Israeli foreign ministry is going to such trouble to drag Iran before the UN Security Council. In the past Israel has had little respect for the ability of the UN to promote peace and security in the region (justifiably so).This time however, it seems that even they believe they don’t have much other viable option.

And so I leave you with the very disturbing thought that only the UN and diplomatic pressure stand between Iran and weapons of mass destruction. We can only pray that they will be able to denuke the bastards.

Iranian female militia in front of a flag denouncing the Zionist enity and her awful evil ally, the US oppressor.

Comments

[Katherine]

thank you mike, now I will not be able to sleep tonight! living close to Tel Aviv as I do... :(

[mike]

The possibility of Iran firing missiles at Tel Aviv to night or anytime in the near future is unlikely. I was talking about a retaliatory strike for destroying their nuclear facilities.

Israel seems very committed to international diplomacy on this issue for at least the next few of months. So I think you can sleep pretty safely tonight. If I was you I would be more worried about those crazy Israeli drivers.

Where near Tel Aviv do u stay? I have cousins who also live near by.

[Katherine]

hey

I live in Kiryat Ono - it's near Giva't Teim and Ramat Gan. Depending on the bus, about 20 minutes from Tel Aviv.

what I meant was it's just the actual concrete details which are scary to read about - that they actually have those missiles, with the capability to reach this far - scary. rather better not to know - to me anyway! :)