Here's a tactical rundown on how disengagement from Gaza is expected to be handled: This Way Out.
The IDF has outlined three scenarios that could occur, with their current predicted scenario worryingly hovering somewhere between the average to the worst scenario. Some officers take a more optimistic approach, believing that the many months that have passed since the plan was announced will have conditioned the settlers to the idea of the disengagement.
The historic withdrawal is expected to begin in Gaza on July 25 August 15 and in Samaria on August 15. By the beginning of the next Israeli school year, there will be not a single Jew left in Gaza or the Northern West Bank.
Keep in mind that it is not possible for Israel to just withdraw the military from these areas, leaving the Jewish residents to live under the PA. The PA won't even for a moment consider that option, knowing that a massacre would take place.
The assumed scenario
The IDF has defined three scenarios based on what can be expected from the local Palestinians and the Jewish settlers once disengagement commences. Regarding the Jewish settlers, the optimistic scenario envisions very limited demonstrations, with the bulk of opponents from Judea and Samaria successfully kept out.The second scenario sees a vocal opposition, joined by large numbers of supporters from outside Gaza, that will physically resist the evacuation, with the possibility of isolated shooting.
The third scenario imagines all-out opposition from the settlers, including large-scale refusal to obey soldiers' orders, incitement and acts of terror against Israeli forces.
The current army prediction is somewhere between the second and third scenarios. There will not be any change made in the orders for opening fire, a senior officer said. Standing orders call for soldiers to neutralize any life-threatening danger they face with the minimum necessary force.
The IDF will be recalling all weapons issued by the Ministry of Defense to the Jewish residents of Gaza. They may even confiscate personal weapons held by those with permits from the ministry of interior. Israel is serious about this, unlike the PA who in violation of the DOP refused to confiscate the illegal weapons used by the terrorists.
What about the Palestinians?
The three possible scenarios regarding the Palestinians include one of limited hostile acts, mostly along the corridors, with the hope that the Palestinian Authority would be able to control the street. The concern would be of a "Hizbullah"-type model of non-violent marching on Jewish settlements. (In south Lebanon, 2,000 civilians marching with Hizbullah flags peacefully stormed SLA outposts as the militia collapsed and fled.) The second scenario anticipates only limited PA control, with terrorist groups staging sporadic mortar fire and Kassam rocket attacks, in addition to sniping at soldiers and at the settlements while they are evacuated. Sderot and border kibbutzim could also come under rocket attacks.
The final - and worst-case - scenario would be an all-out assault on the IDF and settlements as well as on the massive camps around the Gaza Strip. In this scenario, PA forces would have no control, or would even participate in the attacks.
Although the second scenario is considered the most likely, as of early March, the IDF has opted to deploy its forces for a worst-case scenario.
Others in the IDF say the Palestinians will never fight terror until a final-status arrangement is on the negotiating table.
This is typical of the PA and was their strategy during Olso. The Declaration of Principles (DOP) called for an interim self government for the Palestinians and a phased IDF withdrawal from the territories over several years. Both sides agreed and signed the accords. When terror increased during the years after the DOP was signed, the Palestinian stock response was that the intifada will not end until the occupation is over - i.e. they wont fight terror until the occupation ends. But the DOP which they were party to called for a phased withdrawal - i.e the occupation would end over several years instead of a big bang approach. This gave the terrorists a carte blanche for attacks over a protracted period in flagrant violation of the accords.
Sharon is not using this attitude as an excuse to stall all progress. Instead he is withdrawing without coordination with the PA. He understands that they will use the excuse of the occupation and so he will act unilaterally until he delivers an environment conducive to final status negotiations.
Israel has a plan called "5 concentric circles" to implement disengagement.
Five concentric circles
The IDF plan for the Gaza Strip calls for isolating areas and protecting them with a number of buffer zones so they are out of range of any attempted Palestinian attack.The outer, fifth circle will be, of course, the IDF and police force, playing the role of "goalie" to prevent access to the general area.
The fourth circle will involve special blocking units in key positions to intercept any reinforcements from reaching the vicinity of the settlements.
The third is an offensive circle, where troops will preemptively reoccupy large swaths of Palestinian areas to keep mortars out of range.
In these cases, the IDF will clamp a curfew on the Palestinian areas and heavily armed forces will reoccupy them until every last settler and their possessions have been removed.
The second circle is the immediate protective shield the army will provide. This includes taking over access roads up to 200 meters on each side and securing the perimeter of settlements.
The inner circle will comprise the forces who will do the actual evacuation. At press time, 90 percent were expected to be police. The rest will be female soldiers and positions that the police are unable to fill, such as rabbis who will remove mezuzot from doorposts.
What happens to the existing infrastructure?
For the moment, the plan is to destroy all the houses but to leave intact public buildings and agricultural structures, such as green houses. All the synagogues are to be demolished. This decision was made mainly to prevent images of Palestinians looting the abandoned settlements. But negotiations are currently underway to sell them to a third party or to the Palestinian Authority.
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God this is scary. Does anyone else see what is wrong with this? From a pure national security issue, why has Israel entered into a Munich Pact that allows jews to be evicted and supplanted with anti-Isreali factions. Nothing good can come from this. how can Israel let this happen?
Posted by: patd95 | August 14, 2005 at 18:46
Scary indeed, especially as it is so close to Tisha B'Av. Also, Gaza was mentioned in the parsha this week.
Posted by: | August 14, 2005 at 19:45