The Barbarian at the Gate

Today we commemorate the horrific events of 11 September 2001. It presents an opportunity to remember those that lost their lives and to publicly console the family they left behind. But 9/11 was far more than just another human tragedy. For many it was the first shot in a new global struggle between radical Islam and the West. And as such it also presents an opportunity to gauge how we have fared in this conflict so far. Sadly, any honest assessment of the Western war effort must conclude that we are losing.

As a self confessed Neo-con and ardent supporter of the Bush administration, this is not an easy post to write. Where I criticise I do so not to deride the war effort but in the hope that it may in some small way result in a change in course so that we might win.

Let me begin by prefacing my gloomy analysis by emphasising that we are far better off today then we were on September 10 2001. In those Halcyon days before 9/11, when the world’s only superior was pre-occupied in debate over the definition of ‘sexual relations’, radical Islam was amassing its forces unabated. Islamic terrorism was seen as a minor legal infraction that could best be solved by increased police enforcement. The strongest military response the West could muster was firing missiles at aspirin factories in the Sudan and dropping bombs on menacing sand dunes in the desert.

Had this approach continued, we would most certainly have had no hope of defeating the Islamists. Today thankfully the leadership of the free world recognises that we are engaged in a war with radical Islam and we have begun to take serious action (military and otherwise) to defend ourselves.

Yet despite the right intentions, over the last 5 years the West has failed to win one direct military confrontation with the terrorists. In Afghanistan (perhaps our best effort so far) after more than 4 years of fighting, the Taliban has not been defeated. Much of the country is still not under coalition or Afghan control and NATO soldiers continue to be killed almost daily in insurgent attacks. Yes, it is remarkable that there was an election; that girls are now allowed to attend school and people are free to criticise their government. But the chances of this fledgling democracy surviving (let alone strengthening) even with Western military support (which will certainly not last indefinitely) are not overwhelming.

In Iraq our military failings are even greater. The insurgency seems unstoppable taking tens of lives daily in grisly terrorist attacks. It now seems almost inevitable that the country will be torn apart by civil war. Yet despite the increasing violence and the threat of outright military defeat, the lawmakers on Capitol Hill are not debating how many more troops to send but rather the timetable for withdrawal.

The latest direct confrontation with radical Islam, Israel’s war with Hezbollah, also provided no Western victory. With all its military might, Israel was not able to bring Hezbollah to its knees. It did not even manage to rescue its 2 kidnapped soldiers. So why have we been so unsuccessful in every battle with radical Islam over the last 5 years? Because although we are fighting the war, we are doing so on the cheap. If one was to walk in the streets of London, New York or Tel Aviv, you would be forgiven for thinking that the halcyon days of the roaring 1990’s were still upon us. There is not one hint of the economic, physical and emotional sacrifice that a full scale war requires. It’s no wonder we for the most part fight from the air and avoided outright confrontations on the ground. Western public opinion could never stomach the casualties. They can barely deal with this current situation of war life.

Without a leader in the mould of Churchill or Ragan, who could convince Western public opinion to bear the necessary sacrifice that this latest struggle with tyranny requires, I do not think we can win. And I see no such leader on the horizon. The fall of the Roman Empire took over 200 years until it was finally overridden by the Barbarians. In its current state, it is hard to believe that Western civilisation could last as long. Unless we find the commitment and sense of purpose that Americans demonstrated on September 12 2001, I fear a dark age will once again descend on the world.

Comments

[Lawrence]

We don't have any Churchills on the horizon, we only have Chamberlains and Petains, that is why we are losing this war, and Bush is as clueless as any EU political whore. He is all buddy buddy with the tyrannical Saudi regime, a bastion of Islamic fanaticism and a supporter of jihadist ideology. The only difference betwen the "conservative" Saudi Arabian regime and the fundamentalists like Osama who oppose the former, is the former are in state power and the latter are not. It's just a power struggle that's all, like that between Fatah and Hamas; but at bottom they are not that different from one another.

America continues to arm Israel's enemies to the teeth, like Saudi Arabia and Egypt, Egypt to the tune of two billion dollars of US taxpayers money a year despite its constant violation of the Camp David accord, namely through the pathological Jew-hatred espoused in the state run media, and its ever-growing fundamentalism. No problem to the US govt.

The response from the US State Department
to the Danish cartoon row was classic pathetic appeasement.

Bush desperately tried to hand over ownership of many of America's ports (port authorities whatever) to Al-Qu'eida, oh I mean the UAE like there's a difference, and tried to bypass Congress to do it. Where do you think many of the profits would go, same destination as the billions of oil revenue dollars generated in the Persian Gulf. Never mind the worrisome security issues.

The US and Europe getting off middle-east oil would do a lot to lessen the funds from oil profits going to jihadist terror groups, but neither conservatives nor liberals could care less about making a SERIOUS effort here. I mean the time to wake up in this regard was '73 for crying out loud.

Bush's comments on Islam and the jihad are straight out of the PC leftwing handbook. Yes I know he recently remarked on "Muslim fascism" oooh so bloody what, just amplifies his hypocrisy. Bush's mindset and lack of awareness here, like most neo-cons, is essentially a modern "liberal" delusion in other words, not true conservatism, but then many liberals long ago abandoned liberalism altogether. True liberals and true conservatives would find they have more in common on foreign policy and international affairs at least, and I mean in fighting Islamic terror (not economics or business), but both groups are rare breeds today.

[Steve]

9/11 really woke me up. My 9/11 moment happened a couple of weeks after the day. Up until then I didnt have any political interests at all.

I was checking my results from some assignments in the FNB building on West Campus and when I turned around I saw 4 or 5 Muslim students all proudly sporting Osama Bin Laden T-shirts. I couldnt believe that students at a university could do something so provocative so soon after that day. There were so many things that they were saying by wearing those T-Shirts.

After the Wits was plastered with poster over poster claiming that OBL was innocent, asking for the 'proof' and claims that 9/11 was an inside job. All over.

That was my 911 awakening.

[Gareth]

The West has failed Iraq and Afghanistan so blatantly simply because we think bombs will bring democracy. Where was the plan to rebuild Iraq after the "war"? I firmly believe that in 2003 Iraqis wanted a world without Sadam but ask them today and I think all they're worried about is whether a sunni/shiite/kurd/american is going to try harm them and their families.

The blatant arrogance of the West to believe that people would fall to their knees in joy at the democracy they have brought. We need to wake up and understand that in some places people don't want to be Westernized. They don't want democracy. They don't want freedom. And there is no way we will ever bring it to them with more bombs and rhetoric.

Iraq could have been the greatest example to the world of what we are capable. It could've been the Marshall Plan or Berlin Airlift of the 21st Century but instead it will wither away into chaos as we sail our ships into the sea, wishing it farewell and good luck.

[Lawrence]

Gareth I don't think it would have made a difference in Iraq no matter what America did, even if the US admin there had not been incompetent, no Abu Ghraib, far more US troops on the ground, more sensitivity to Iraqi natives and therefore adequate training in this regard; and even if there was an awareness of Iraq's ethnic and religious divisions and forward planning here.

There is simply no comparison to Iraq with post WW2 Europe, Iraq's culture and widespread Islamic fascism on the one-hand and Baathist fascism on the other hand, secularists struggling to be heard and not getting killed, inevitable power struggles in the vaccuum left post-Saddam; Sunni and Shi'ite divisions which go back hundreds and hundreds of years, Arab and Kurd divisions, brutal neighbouring regimes like Iran who would inevitably create chaos for their own agendas, Muslim extremists from around the world who would gladly risk death in Iraq for the jihad against the Great Satan - all this made the Iraqi crisis inevitable in my mind.

[Lawrence]

re Steve's post - you're a youngster then I see, I thought you were older. I was at Wits in the late 80s early 90s. Actually I had my political awakening during the First Gulf War 1991. Many Muslim students were openly pro-Saddam and distributed terrible Jew-hate literature and sloganeering on East Campus as the war got underway.

The reason we wake up late (and some, most never wake up at all) is because we simply do not know enough history or the really important history, or what really goes on in certain places in the world, if we did we would know what to expect and not be taken aback by it when it hits one's own generation.

re the Osama t-shirt - I once saw a t-shirt on sale in the Cape Town Greenmarket street square stall area, about 2 years back, Osama
as an American football quaterback throwing a missile instead of a football and written above "9-11 All-Stars". Openly on sale.

[Trevor]

Lawrence, what was wrong with ownership of the ports going to Dubai Ports World?

[mike]

Lawrence, I disagree with you. I don’t think liberty is exclusively a Western value. I believe all peoples no matter what their religion aspire to be free. Germany and Japan were extremely problematic after World War 2. Both were extremely militarist societies where strong leadership was the order of the day. There was no real culture of democracy. Germany had not been a united country very long (only since Bismarck) and could easily have disintegrated into ethnic and civil strife.

I believe that Iraq and Afghanistan can still be saved. Bush’s 9/11 speech yesterday was extremely heartening. Now he needs to put that positive rhetoric into positive action.

[Gareth]

First off, I want to say that I do recognize the threat radical Islam poses. I recognize the fundamental evil within itself (pretty much with all religions) but moreso with Islam in today's world. I recognize that the West needs to come out and really defend it's ideals instead of allowing them to be used by extremists.

But by the same token I want to know why are we sacrificing young men in a country that clearly has lost all inignation for democracy? How many casualties of -our- troops do we need before we see that "democracizing" places in the Middle East is a fairytale.

As far as I can see Iraq and Afghanistan are just strategic tokens in a giant game of Risk the West is willing to push sacrifice into. I'm really done with silly rhetoric. What is our end-game goal? Are we going to actively strive for real democracy (because it's quite clear our current efforts are way off) or are we going to acknowledge that major conflict is and will be not only inevitable but necessary?

[mike]

Gareth, I don’t agree. I don’t believe you are right that Iraqis are not interested in building a democratic society. The massive turn out at the polls despite the very real security risks demonstrates that they vast majority are extremely committed to building a democratic future. Unfortunately their country is being held to random by a small band of murderous thugs.

You asked the most important question in this whole war. Why are American soldiers risking their life for Iraqis? It actually requires an entire post. But briefly. In the Middle East today Arabs have 2 political choices. They either tow the line of the brutal dictators (many of which America and the West has been propping up for decades) or they embrace radical Islam. Now if I was living under the economic, social and political oppression that Arabs are forced to endure from their own leaders, the choice is pretty easy. Radical Islam is the only path to salvation (in this world and the world to come).

If we do not provide these millions of people with another alternative, then 9/11 will be a daily event. Now we are fighting thousands but if we do nothing we will be fighting millions of Jihadists gunning for our destruction. Now Iraq was going to be the model for a third way. A strong stable democracy in the heart of the Middle East. If this does not happen. If we lose Iraq to radical Islam than we lose the entire Arab world.

It will be the equivalent of abandoning the white Russian army during the Russian revolution. Can you imagine how many lives we could have saved had the Communists not won?