The absence of Ariel Sharon from the Israeli political system will leave a void almost as big as the man himself. At this point it seems that even if Sharon does survive it is very unlikely that he will be able to return to work.
Deputy PM Ehud Olmert has stepped in as acting Prime Minister and he will probably remain in that position until the March elections.
Its been a very emotional day for all people of good conscience that follow Israeli politics. Whatever your political opinions on Sharon, it’s hard to deny that as Prime Minister he, almost single handedly, made Israel once again safe to visit.
For a long time now I have been backing Ariel Sharon and his unilateral plans, which I believed could finally bring security and calm things down allowing Israelis and Palestinians to take a time out from each other. Not peace - but quiet for a while. And now it may no longer be possible. So much hope has just disappeared...
I supported Sharon's unilateral path of progress towards obtaining secure and defendable borders that will allow Israel to remain both democratic and Jewish. This path involves some painful concessions - losses that Sharon is prepared to make. Sharon was doing this not because he trusts the Palestinians - he doesn't. Not because he thinks they deserve it - they don't. Not because it will bring peace - it won't. It's because the current status quo is no longer tenable. It's because its more important to be a Jewish state in some of the land than to go for all of the land and risk losing everything. And because the world may ultimately force us to take this path anyways. Sharon has the courage, support and charisma to ensure that this path is taken on our terms, plotting a border with our vital and strategic interests in mind.
It used to be said that Sharon was inelectable. Today he is irreplaceable
And now Israel is in a state of political confusion where anything is possible and no one is ever written off. Yesterday the Likud were struggling to hold onto 13 seats in the polls - today Netanyahu is once again a reasonable prospect for Prime Minister. Yesterday Shinui were about to fade off into a haze of insignificance - today they are once again eyeing 5-10 seats. Even Shimon Peres may once again be in a position of relative power.
As usual the Head Heeb has one of the best and most thorough analyses of the repercussions from Sharon’s stroke: At a Stroke
What happens to Kadima?
I don’t see Kadima dissolving. I think they have a core of uniquely talented politicians who are unified behind the idea of obtaining secure and defensible borders for Israel even if it doesn’t mean peace with the Palestinians.
The Head Heeb points out that it wouldn’t be that easy for Kadima members to slide back into their previous parties.
| ...registration for the other parties' candidate lists has closed, and their respective central committees aren't likely to reopen the process to accommodate turncoats. Like the election itself, the formation of Kadima is now an irrevocable commitment. |
Who will be the new leader of Kadima?
The Kadima leadership race will ultimately be a three horse race between acting Prime Minister Ehud Olmert, Tzipi Livni, and Shaul Mofaz. Ehud Olmert has received the initial support from Kadima members for the leadership position. He is a Sharon loyalist and one of the most experienced and talented politicians in Israel. It used to be said in Israel that you could predict where Sharon would be holding two years from now by looking at what Olmert is saying today. He has strong right-wing credentials coupled with a sense of pragmatism which positions him to win support from both the traditional Likud and Labour voters. (Olmert visited South Africa last year, when he became the first member of the Israeli Knesset to visit south Africa since the fall of Apartheid. I attended his address to the Johannesburg Jewish community and liked what he had to say.)
Olmert will need the support of all members of Kadima, particularly that of Minister of Defence and former IDF Chief of Staff Shaul Mofaz. Mofaz also has right-wing credentials as a former Likudnik who supported Sharon’s disengagement plan.
The Elections
The current polls make for some interesting reading, but only a fool would take them too seriously. The polls suggest that if elections were held right now Kadima would win 42 seats if led by Shimon Peres and 40 seats if led by Ehud Olmert. 42 seats if led by Shimon Peres? That sort of ruins any credibility the poll may have claimed. In fact, I wouldn't be too surprised if Peres now left Kadima and returned to bolster Labour.
A more likely scenario is that the absence of Sharon will see the resurgence of the Likud and Shinui – parties who both lost votes to Kadima. Earlier polls indicated that the Likud would get a paltry 13 seats whilst Shinui was not even expected to get enough votes for 1 solitary seat. That has all changed.
What about the Palestinian elections?
In a sea of unknowns, the Palestinian elections represent the darkest uncertainty. Gaza, free from an Israeli presence, is in a state of chaos. There is no judicial system, no tax collecting apparatus, and no unified security or police apparatus. Kidnappings and fire-fights between rival security factions are daily events.
The disorder and absence of control has seemingly strengthened support for Hamas if the recent municipality elections are anything to go by. Hamas could now ride the crescent of this wave, leveraging Sharon’s disability as yet another sign of Israeli weakness. “Keep pounding away at the Israelis and eventually we will get it all” is the message that may see them victorious at the polls. If however Labour were to emerge as the new dominant Israeli party then we could see Fatah’s position strengthened amongst Palestinian voters.
For the moment all we can do is hope and pray for a full recovery for Ariel Sharon, despite it's unlikelihood.
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