I arrived back 2 days ago from almost a month in Israel. I had intended to begin this year’s blogging with some of the insights I gained on my trip and perhaps even be so bold as to make some political predictions for 2006. But as a sat down to write, the news of Prime Minister Sharon’s massive stroke broke. And like most Middle East political observers, my perceptions and hope for the future course of Israeli-Arab relations was shattered. While I still intend to convey many of my numerous experiences in Israel, I feel that those are better left for a later date. Now it is only appropriate to deal with the unfolding tragedy that is befalling the Jewish people—Prime Minister Sharon’s ailing health.
While I continue to hope and pray that the Prime Minister makes a full recovery and is once again able to lead his Kadima party to victory in the March elections, medical evidence seems to suggest that this is unlikely. The length of the operation and the extent of the bleeding do not bode well for the Prime Minister. It seems that Ariel Sharon’s influence on the modern history of the Jewish people has come to an end. This realization has left many of us with a feeling of bewilderment. Who other than Sharon is able to lead the Jewish people at this crucial time?
As Steve pointed out, Ehud Olmert has taken over as acting Prime Minister and for now it seems as if Kadima members are solidly behind him. I met Mr Olmert once in Israel many years ago when he was still major of Jerusaelm and like Steve heard him speak when he came to South Africa. He was what is known as a Likud prince. His father was instrumental in the Irgun movement during the establishment of the state of Israel and later become a senior member of the Likud. Olmert like many other children of Irgun leaders (Bibi Netanyahu is another example) followed in their fathers’ political footsteps and dedicated their careers to serving the state of Israel through the Likud. As Steve points out this does give him some right wing credentials. But his recent sharp shift to the centre Left and adoption of a Ben Gurion-like as opposed to a Begin-like approach to the conflict with the Palestinians has alienated many of his previous supporters.
As a previous mayor of Jerusalem he does have extensive management experience necessary to run the country. The greater Jerusalem municipality is one of the largest in Israel. It is also one of the most politically complex with its many Arab, Christian, Jewish and secular residence. For many years he did managed to successfully run the city. He also has an international stature. He has conducted numerous negotiations with the American over the past 5 years on a wide range of issues and is a regular guest on international news channels.
Despite these positive qualities Olmert is no Sharon. He does not have the same military credibility. Thus he does not provide Israelis with the same sense of security that Sharon did. Moreover he is more bureaucrat than a politician and lacks the charisma necessary to secure a large majority for Kadima.
So what does all this mean for Israel? While it is much too early to make definitive political calls I do believe that Kadima headed by Olmert (assuming the party stays together) will receive far less than 40 seats in the Knesset. Likud and possibly Labour will benefit significantly as a result. And so the new Knesset will be further fragmented requiring more coalition partners and more compromise: effectively paralyzing progress on any of the major political and social issues facing the Jewish state.
Olmert is no Sharon.
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